An IVoteMyVote.com Editorial
By Charlie Theo
November 2026 | Agriculture, Trade & Economic Policy
The Hard Numbers: Trade Wars and Farm Realities
Even with emergency federal assistance, American soybean farmers lost an estimated $75 per harvested acre in 2025. With fertilizer costs surging 10% to 15% and Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies jumping by nearly 50%, tariffs designed to pressure foreign competitors are testing the financial endurance of family farms across the nation.
Fair Trade is worth the fight, but the bill for tariffs may be coming due. We’ve farmed for over thirty years, and back tough trade policy. China has cheated the system for decades, and somebody had to confront their duplicity. But we rely upon the numbers; so here they are.
The Soybean Shock: Lost Markets and Government Aid
China suspended purchases of U.S. soybeans for nearly five months in 2025 and bought from Brazil instead. As a result, soybean sales to China last marketing year fell 45% to 12.8 million metric tons. A $12 billion federal aid package helped cushion the blow, but according to the American Soybean Association, farmers still lost almost $75 per harvested acre of 2025 soybeans even after this federal assistance.
Rising Input Costs: Fertilizer, Steel, and Machinery
Costs hurt too. Tariffs touching fertilizer, steel, and machinery components helped push 2026 fertilizer prices 10% to 15% above 2025 levels. To be fair, tariffs aren’t the whole story, since the broader geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed global fertilizer prices about 20% higher than January 2025 benchmarks.
The Farm Income Picture: Bankruptcies vs. Subsidies
Now look at the income picture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will fall 5.5% to $158.4 billion in 2026, while direct government subsidies run $19.5 billion higher than in 2025. Another $12 billion payment of aid has passed the House of Representatives and currently awaits Senate approval.
This assistance is welcomed during difficult seasons, but it is fundamentally better to earn farm income directly from competitive free markets rather than relying on the U.S. taxpayer. Meanwhile, 315 family farmers filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy in 2025—a troubling jump of almost 50%.
There are some signs of progress. China has committed to buy nearly 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far this marketing year, but American beef exports remain far behind previous record levels.
Tariffs as a Bridge: Reaching the Other Side
“We still believe in the goal: open, fair markets for American farm products. But tariffs are supposed to be a bridge, and bridges need to reach the other side.”
We here at IVoteMyVote.com believe Washington should finish the trade deals and bring down operating costs, so American farmers can continue feeding the country and the world without relying permanently on taxpayer subsidies.
We urge you to become a subscriber to IVoteMyVote.com to help us encourage sanity in our US farm policy to keep the American farmer as the most productive in the world!
— Charlie Theo, IVoteMyVote.com
Sources & Reference Documentation
- Nandy, S. (2026). FACTBOX: Farm sectors seek trade expansion, tariff relief ahead of Trump-Xi summit. S&P Global. Retrieved from S&P Global.
- Sharma, R. (2026). Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture: What Lies Ahead. Tavant. Retrieved from Tavant.
- Zajkowski, J. (2026). From Farm Aid to Trump’s Promised Dividend, Payments Grow. Progressive Farmer. Retrieved from Progressive Farmer.
